diff --git a/protocol.pdf b/protocol.pdf index 0ed0bcde97f0c9f5418ef35c57e1e1bef11f8aed..3746d8558fa9f86933fd2e7cb4e7a880b35780de 100644 Binary files a/protocol.pdf and b/protocol.pdf differ diff --git a/protocol.tex b/protocol.tex index 0cc89cbe1894c60e5833f0f4a37b53f513758c16..9b5699061007237d2f42e0605e3e3bc5c20f67c3 100644 --- a/protocol.tex +++ b/protocol.tex @@ -111,9 +111,9 @@ We save the output of \texttt{sessionInfo()} giving information on the used version of R, packages, and platform with the simulation results. \subsection{Random number generator} -We use the package \pkg{doRNG} with its default random number generator to -ensure that random numbers generated inside parallel for loops are independent -and reproducible. +We use the package \pkg{doRNG} \todo{add citation} with its default random +number generator to ensure that random numbers generated inside parallel +for loops are independent and reproducible. \subsection{Scenarios to be investigated} \label{sec:scenario} @@ -121,13 +121,10 @@ The $720$ simulated scenarios consist of all combinations of the following parameters: \begin{itemize} \item Higgin's $I^2$ heterogeneity measure $\in \{0, 0.3, 0.6, 0.9\}$. -% \item We always use an additive heterogeneity model. \todo{Maybe remove this entirely?} \item Number of studies summarized by the meta-analysis $k \in \{3, 5, 10, 20, 50\}$. \item Publication bias is $\in \{\text{'none'}, \text{'moderate'}, \text{'strong'}\}$ following the terminology of \citet{henm:copa:10}. \item The average study effect $\theta \in \{0.2, 0.5\}$. - %, and we set it to $\theta = 0.2$ to - %obtain a similar scenario as used in \citet{henm:copa:10}. \item The distribution to draw the true study values $\delta_i$ is either 'Gaussian' or 't' with 4 degrees of freedom. The latter still has finite mean and variance, but leads to more 'outliers'. @@ -140,8 +137,6 @@ Note that \citet{IntHoutIoannidis} use a similar setup. \subsection{Simulation details} -% For the \textbf{Additive heterogeneity model without publication bias}, the -% simulation of one meta-analysis dataset is performed as follows: The simulation of one meta-analysis data set is performed as follows: \begin{enumerate} @@ -170,34 +165,6 @@ The simulation of one meta-analysis data set is performed as follows: The marginal variance of this simulation procedure is $\tau^2 + 2/n_i$, so follows the additive heterogeneity model as intended. -% For the \textbf{Multiplicative model without publication bias}, the simulation -% of one meta-analysis dataset is performed as follows: -% \begin{enumerate} -% \item Compute the within-study variance -% $\epsilon^2 = \frac{2}{k} \sum\limits_{i=1}^k \frac{1}{n_i}$. -% \item Compute the multiplicative heterogeneity factor -% $\phi = \frac{1}{1-I^2}$. Compute the corresponding -% \begin{equation}\label{eq:eq2} -% \tau^2 = \epsilon^2 \, (\phi-1) . -% \end{equation} -% \item For a trial $i$ of the meta-analysis with $k$ trials, $i = 1, \dots, k$: -% \begin{enumerate} -% \item Simulate the true effect size using the Gaussian model: -% $\delta_i \sim \N(\theta, \tau^2)$ or using a Student-$t$ distribution -% such that the samples have mean $\theta$ and variance $\tau^2$. -% \item Simulate the effect estimates of each trial -% $y_i \sim \N(\delta_i, \frac{2}{n_i})$. -% \item Simulate the standard errors of the trial outcomes: -% $\text{se}_i \sim \sqrt{\frac{\chi^2(2n_i-2)}{(n_i-1)n_i}}$. -% \end{enumerate} -% \end{enumerate} -% -% -% \paragraph{Note: The marginal variance}\mbox{}\\ -% The marginal variance of this simulation procedure is -% $\frac{2}{n} \, (\phi-1) + \frac{2}{n} = \frac{2\phi}{n} = \phi \, \epsilon^2$, -% so follows the multiplicative model as intended. - \paragraph{Note: Publication bias}\mbox{}\\ To simulate studies under \textbf{publication bias}, we follow the suggestion of \citet{henm:copa:10} and accept each simulated study with probability @@ -216,18 +183,6 @@ publication bias. Thus, larger studies with $n_i = 500$ are always accepted. As described in Section~\ref{sec:scenario}, we set $\theta \in \{0.2, 0.5\}$. See the R function \texttt{simREbias()}. -% The mean study effect $\theta$ and the sample size $n_i$ have an influence -% on the acceptance probability - -% \paragraph{Note: Unbalanced sample sizes}\mbox{}\\ -% To study the effect of unbalanced sample sizes $n_1, \ldots, n_k$ we consider -% the following setup: -% \begin{enumerate} -% \item Increase the sample size of \textbf{one} of the $k$ by a factor 10. -% \item Increase the sample size of \textbf{two} of the $k$ by a factor 10. -% \end{enumerate} -%% See the argument \texttt{large} of \texttt{simREbias()}. - \subsection{Simulation procedure} For each scenario in Section~\ref{sec:scenario} we \begin{enumerate} @@ -251,9 +206,6 @@ For this project, we will calculate 95\% CIs according to the following methods. \item Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman (HK) \citep{IntHoutIoannidis}. \item Random effects model. \item Henmi and Copas (HC) \citep{henm:copa:10}. - \item Bayesian random effects meta analysis (Bayesmeta) with half-normal prior - distribution with scale parameter $\sigma = 0.3$ for $\tau$, the square root - between-study heterogeneity \citep{rov:20, lil:2023}. \item Edgington's method \citep{edgington:72}. \item Fisher's method \citep{fisher:34}. \end{enumerate} @@ -279,18 +231,6 @@ The calculation of the estimates in the simulation will be done using the The adjusted study-specific standard errors are then given by $\text{se}_{\text{adj}}(\hat{\theta_i}) = \sqrt{\text{se}(\hat{\theta_i})^2 + \tau^2}$. -% As stated in Subsection~\ref{sec:method}, the harmonic mean and $k$-trials -% methods can be extended such that heterogeneity between the individual studies -% is taken into account. In scenarios where the additive variance adjustment is -% used, we estimate the between study variance $\tau^2$ using the REML method -% implemented in the \texttt{metagen} \texttt{R}-package ``meta'' and adjust -% the study-specific standard errors such that -% $\text{se}_{\text{adj}}(\hat{\theta_i}) = \sqrt{\text{se}(\hat{\theta_i})^2 + \tau^2}$. -% In case of the multiplicative variance adjustment, we estimate the -% multiplicative parameter $\phi$ as described in \citet{mawd:etal:17} and adjust -% the study-specific standard errors such that -% $\text{se}_{\text{adj}}(\hat{\theta_i}) = \text{se}(\hat{\theta_i}) \cdot \sqrt{\phi}$. - \subsection{Measures considered} \label{sec:meas} We assess the CIs using the following criteria @@ -298,19 +238,6 @@ We assess the CIs using the following criteria \item CI coverage of combined effect, \ie, the proportion of intervals containing the true effect. If the CI does not exist given a specific simulated data set, we treat the coverage as as missing (\texttt{NA}). - % coverage_true - % \item CI coverage of study effects, \ie, the proportion of intervals - % containing the true study-specific effects % coverage_effects - % \item CI coverage of all study effects, \ie, whether or not the CI covers - % all of the study effects %coverage_all - % \item CI coverage of at least one of the study effects, \ie, whether or not - % the CI covers at least one of the study effects % coverage_effects_min1 - % \item Prediction Interval (PI) coverage, \ie, the proportion of intervals - % containing the treatment effect of a newly simulated study. The newly - % simulated study has $n = 50$ and is not subject to publication bias. All - % other simulation parameters stay the same as for the simulation of the - % original studies (only for Harmonic mean, $k$-trials, REML, and HK methods) - % % coverage_prediction \item CI width. If there is more than one interval, the width is the sum of the lengths of the individual intervals. If the interval does not exist for a simulated data set, the width will be recorded as missing (\texttt{NA}). @@ -319,8 +246,8 @@ We assess the CIs using the following criteria a simulated data set, the score will be recorded as missing (\texttt{NA}). % score \item Number of CIs (only for Fisher and Edgington methods). If the interval - does not exist for a simulated data set, the number of CIs will be recorded as - 0. % n + does not exist for a simulated data set, the number of CIs will be recorded as + 0. % n \end{enumerate} Furthermore, we calculate the following measure related to the point estimates